Preface: I take absolutely no credit for the statistical analysis that follows; only the commentary is original to me. Ty originally posted these numbers here, and it was re-posted at the Wages of Wins Journal here. I’m re-posting these numbers for any Pistons fans who might follow this blog, but not those two others (and if you don’t, start already!).
We’ll start with Bismack Biyombo, who has become the fan favorite, or at least as far as I can tell by following the blogosphere and social media.
On the one hand, Biyombo appears to represent two things the Pistons desperately need: rebounding and interior defense. On the other hand, the stats support the perception that he has very little to offer on the offensive side of the ball. I may get some flack for this, but he just looks more like Junkyard Dog than Ben Wallace to me, and he’s high risk due to uncertainty about his age. A raw eighteen year old who is full of potential posting slightly sub-par numbers looks quite different than a twenty-one year old doing the same.
I’m not opposed to drafting him. I simply worry that he’s not as good as his hype, and the question marks about his age should raise some red flags.
In spite of posting better-than-average numbers, the last thing a roster populated by Stuckey, Gordon, and Bynum needs is another under-sized guard whose position is a question mark. I think Kemba will carve out a role somewhere, just not here. I hope.
As Ty rightly notes, this is a crapshoot. He’s posted some very nice numbers with a small sample size from a league whose numbers don’t always project well to the NBA. At only nineteen, though, he’s certainly worth thinking about if he falls to #8.
For reasons I can’t quite understand, Leonard is reportedly rising up the Pistons draft board. Even if Prince and McGrady both depart, it seems Daye and Jerebko could man the small forward position for a year. Like Walker, Leonard posted some decent numbers, but he doesn’t seem to fit an obvious need, and his talent isn’t so great that it should demand selecting him.
Another projected combo forward in the NBA, but this time with below-average numbers. Pass.
The Morris twins (numbers taken from here)
I’m not sure what to make of the Morris twins. Both posted respectable numbers on a powerhouse; however, to the surprise of many, Markieff’s Win Score numbers surpass his brother’s (Markieff, 13.5; Marcus, 11.6). Suddenly, Robin and Brooke come to mind.
While not featured in Ty’s analysis, Faried has been a popular topic among the WoW network. He’s exactly the type of player that critics of Wins Produced like to highlight, because his productivity is directly (although not exclusively) linked to rebounding.
In spite of being older than many of the other big men in the draft, he boasts the highest Win Score (17.2) of any prospect. Because rebounding consistently translates to the NBA, he seems to be a lock as a rotation big man, but he will almost certainly fall out of the lottery. While he won’t fall nearly as far, he seems to be this year’s DeJuan Blair; he is like to drop far enough that an already good team will be able to add another productive and cheap asset.
What to do with the lottery pick?
Obviously, I am not a supporter of drafting any of the below-average big men whose stock is rising due to impressive workouts. I am also opposed to drafting Walker and Leonard at #8 (although to a lesser extent with Leonard, and if trading down is an option, I could be convinced).
Since the draft lottery, I have been an advocate of trading down, and I still prefer that under specific circumstances. If the Pistons can trade down and draft Faried (or maybe Leonard or Markieff) and/or land another asset such as an additional draft pick and/or unload a bad contract, I prefer this scenario. Faried appears to be a low risk, medium reward player. He’s not likely to be the next Marcus Camby or Ben Wallace, but he’s very likely to become a rotation player, and the Pistons can use a cheap, productive big man who can crack the rotation. Considering that our current rotation consists of Monroe, Jerebko, Villanueva, Maxiell, and Wallace, we desperately need help up front.
If trading down for Faried isn’t an option, I can support trading down for one of the other productive players mentioned above, as long as there’s an additional asset involved.
If we stand pat at eight, Biyombo or Jonas V. Both appear to be high risk, high reward players that could develop to fit a need, but the skeptic in me can’t shake the need to temper expectations.