2013-2014 Pistons win production through 26 games

Preface:

Hello! How’s it going? Better than the Pistons’ season so far, I hope.

This blog has been about as efficient as a Josh Smith three point attempt over the past year (I’m full of them today). There are two main reasons for this. First, Wins Produced numbers are easily accessible via Box Score Geeks, and one of my primary reasons for starting this blog was to get WP numbers out there for interested Pistons fans. There’s less need for that now that Wins Produced has been automated and new data is available daily. Second, I’m doing a lot of game-by-game stuff over at Detroit Bad Boys, which usually includes a good bit of Wages of Wins inspired statistical analysis if not wins produced numbers directly.

That said, my plan is to write a handful of posts here each season that are specifically related to Wins Produced and its derivative metrics, in addition to to writing for DBB on a weekly basis. My goal is to identify trends and to speculate on some of the how? and why? questions that Wins Produced doesn’t claim to or try to answer.

End Preface.

After 26 games, the Pistons are not where they thought they’d be, not where the numbers suggested they might be, and certainly not where fans hoped they’d be. In spite of this, given how terrible the Eastern Conference has been thus far (only Indiana and Miami have winning records), the Pistons find themselves tied for fourth place with the Boston Celtics in the Playoff hunt, meaning that yes, if the Playoffs started today, Boston and Detroit would battle it out in the first round of the Playoffs.

However, that’s little solace for fans who enjoy good basketball, and a losing record hasn’t been enough to dramatically improve attendance, and thus substantially increase revenue for new owner Tom Gores. Presumably, no one is all that happy so far.

So, what gives? First of all, the numbers (as always, provided by Box Score Geeks):

Player Position Minutes Wins Produced per 48 Wins Produced
Andre Drummond C 855 0.329 5.85
Greg Monroe C 884 0.101 1.87
Kyle Singler SF 582 0.131 1.59
Brandon Jennings PG 890 0.060 1.11
Josh Smith SF 935 0.039 0.76
Rodney Stuckey SG 637 0.049 0.65
Josh Harrellson FC 156 0.148 0.48
Kentavious Caldwell-Pope SG 568 0.025 0.29
Tony Mitchell F 34 0.409 0.29
Charlie Villanueva PF 61 0.134 0.17
Chauncey Billups G 203 0.038 0.16
Jonas Jerebko PF 149 0.012 0.04
Will Bynum PG 199 -0.011 -0.04
Peyton Siva PG 76 -0.232 -0.37
Luigi Datome GF 86 -0.264 -0.47

The Good:

Andre Drummond is incredible. If you have thirty free minutes, go search YouTube for Andre Drummond highlights, and prepare to be amazed. Not a game goes by without opportunity to to be amazed. Fortunately, his highlights aren’t just empty hype. Andre Drummond is fourth in the NBA in total Wins Produced, trailing Chris Paul, LeBron James, and Kevin Durant.

As to the why of those numbers, it’s relatively simple: Andre takes and makes a lot of very high percentage shots – which include a developing back to the basket hook shot, as well as more alley oops than I can count – and is a black hole when it comes to rebounds. He’s also one of the best big men I’ve ever seen in terms of playing the passing lane and forcing turnovers. Andre Drummond converts nearly 62% of his shots, snags almost 28% of all available defensive rebounds when on the floor, and just over 16% of all available offensive rebounds.

As to the how, it’s also relatively simple: Andre Drummond is one of the most athletically gifted human beings on the planet. His game is raw and unpolished. He’s shooting under 40% from the free throw line. He frequently misses rotations on defense. But none of that matters, because his natural talents and instincts more than make up for all of that. Simply, he’s an incredible talent.

The next most productive Piston is surprisingly Kyle Singler. Arguably, Kyle should be starting over Josh Smith at small forward. Kyle’s productivity is being driven by an incredible true shooting percentage; at just over 60%, Kyle actually leads the Pistons, which is all the more remarkable given Dre’s 62% shooting from the field. Other than making his shots, Kyle isn’t doing anything remarkably well, but that shooting is enough for the moment.

Greg Monroe’s numbers in the table above may seems surprisingly low, and frankly, I’m a little surprised by them. Note, however, that Box Score Geeks classifies him as a Center, but in reality, he’s playing much more Power Forward, where his numbers compare more favorably (and more accurately): .141 WP48, 2.5 Wins Produced.

Last season, Greg Monroe struggled early in the year adjusting to his new role as the Pistons’ go-to scorer. This year, his role has changed again. Most nights, he’s the fourth option, behind Brandon Jennings, Josh Smith, and Rodney Stuckey. It’s hard to believe, but Greg Monroe is averaging fewer shots per game than any other season as a pro, except his rookie year.

For reasons I cannot understand or explain, the Pistons seem committed to making Greg Monroe a complementary player volume scorers who are significantly less effective than he is. Joe Dumars at his finest.

Josh Harrellson is also playing well in limited minutes, but his role is increasing as the season progresses.

Charlie Villanueva has only played 61 minutes, and that is fantastic.

The Bad:

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope is not putting up good numbers, and it has everything to do with shooting and shot selection. It’s clear that he hasn’t yet developed NBA range or consistency, and it’s clear that he hasn’t figured out what’s a good shot and a bad shot commensurate to his role. He’s improving as the season progresses, and there’s a lot of reasons to be excited about his long-term future – including his fantastic on-the-ball defense – but he’s not there yet.

Rodney Stuckey is getting a lot of praise in his role off the bench. Early, it was warranted. However, as has always been the case with Stuckey, his production is quickly regressing to the mean. Stuckey has been consistently inconsistent throughout his career, and that hasn’t changed this season.

Brandon Jennings is torture to watch if you enjoy teamwork, good shot selection, and ball handling. He’s a definite upgrade over Brandon Knight, but an apt comparison is that he’s simply an improved version of Brandon Knight. He calls his own number far too often, he dribbles out the shot clock and forces his offense into bad shots as a result, and is one of the worst on-the-ball defenders I’ve seen at PG. Jose Calderon, we hardly knew you.

The Ugly:

Josh Smith has been an offensive disaster for the Pistons. It only takes watching on broadcast on Fox Sports Detroit to see how hard the franchise is trying to sell its fanbase on Josh Smith. Commercial after highlight reel after interview dominates the airwaves during game breaks. He is the highest paid player in franchise history, so it makes sense in that regard.

In terms of production, however, Josh Smith is almost exactly the same player for the Pistons as he was in Atlanta last season. If you have a weak stomach and an appreciation for basketball, I would not encourage you to click through to his shot chart. It is a disgrace to basketball.

The table above presents Josh Smith as a Small Forwards, which he is, some of the time. Compared to other Small Forwards, he’s below average. Compared to Power Forwards, however, where Smith does spend a large chunk of his playing time, he’s producing negative wins.

Yes, the richest Piston on franchise history is actively taking wins off the board.

When it comes to things not related to shooting and scoring, Josh Smith is pretty good. He’s a good rebounder. He’s a good passer. He blocks shots and gets steals. He’s not great at any of those things, but he’s good at all of them, and in that sense, he’s a very well rounded player.

Unfortunately, all of that is rendered irrelevant by Josh Smith’s terrible shot selection, atrocious shooting, and propensity to shoot the ball constantly in spite of being terrible at it.

Here, the analysis doesn’t need to go deeper. Josh Smith is a terrible offensive player who chooses to be terrible at offense as often as the opportunity presents itself.

Jonas Jerebko is mostly out of the rotation thanks to the Josh Smith acquisition. Naturally, Jonas Jerebko has been more productive over the course of his career, so it makes sense the Pistons would bury him on the bench to make room for a toxic player like Josh Smith.

As someone who enjoys good basketball and as a fan of Jonas Jerebko’s style of play, I sincerely feel badly for Jonas. He’s not and never will be a great player, but he’s a useful player in the right role, and ironically, the Pistons could really use a player like him to play the role he’s best at.

Luigi Datome was a great player in Italy. He’s been a terrible NBA player so far. Limited minutes likely have a lot to do with this, but it’s hard to see him getting an increased role given the way Maurice Cheeks has handled the rotation thus far.

Will Bynum continues to be terrible. He’s a bad shooter, turnover prone and ball hoggy. He really has no business in the rotation.

Summing Up:

The Pistons are 12-14, and they’ve earned it. At the franchise level, they have committed significant money and roles to players – Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith – who can’t carry a team to anything better without overhauling their entire approach to the game.

As a fanalyst, this is made all the more infuriating by the fact that these decisions have been made at the expense of players who could make the team better, and at a significantly better price. Players like Jonas Jerebko, Josh Harrellson, and Kyle Singler aren’t glamorous, but they’re all the type of hard-working, blue-collar players that would be expected to thrive in Detroit – a city whose basketball franchise prides itself in its underdog reputation.

From the long-term perspective, this season has the potential to be much more damaging. Greg Monroe is the best offensive player in the Pistons’ employ. During his first two seasons, it was obvious to everyone but the Pistons’ coaching staff that he deserved to be the first option on merit. Last season, he settled into that role nicely in the second half of the season, and particularly well with Andre Drummond and a pass-first facilitator like Jose Calderon.

Unfortunately, the franchise appears to have given up on what appeared to be that sure bet, and has done so to its detriment. Instead of betting big on big-time players like Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe, Joe Dumars opted for more of the same in Josh Smith and Brandon Jennings – who fit the mold of Allen Iverson, Ben Gordon, and Charlie Villanueva all to snugly.

At 12 wins and 14 losses, the Pistons are better than last season, yes, but they are worse than they could be and are in danger of betting the franchise’s future – which is tied directly to Greg Monroe’s willingness to remain a Piston in free agency – on today’s mediocrity.

Fortunately, there is still a lot of NBA season left to turn this around, and the fixes aren’t that difficult, at least in theory. Here’s hoping against hope they happen.

2012-2013 Detroit Pistons Season Preview

Can the Pistons make the playoffs? And even if they can, will they? At least a few players will consider the season a failure if they do not. Playoffs or bust, then… or is it?

Last year at this time, Charlie Villanueva tweeted some things about insanity: doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result is crazy. Turns out, he was right. Given the players on the roster, a below-freezing win forecast in the mid-twenties seemed likely. And in spite of finishing the season a whole lot better than they started, the Pistons completed the season at 25-41. By efficiency differential, from which Wins Produced is derived, the Pistons were actually a little bit worse and would have been expected to win only 22 games.

This year, the Pistons will return several of the same players, and many of those players are expected to play significant roles. However, this year there finally be some room for optimism  - in the numbers of all places! And while the NBA Playoffs are probably still out of reach, that won’t necessarily make this season a bust. There is an intriguing young core of players emerging here that should give the Pistons some hope.

Continue reading

Wins Produced Splits Visualized

UPDATE: Post is up on Detroit Bad Boys. Link here.

A full post with comments will be posted to www.detroitbadboys.com. Please feel free to join the conversation there when it’s live. I will link the post here as soon as it’s live.

The splits presented here are from the beginning of the season to the end of March. I will create updated charts at the end of the season.

ADWP48 Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

ADWP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

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BG WP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

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BW WP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

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CV WP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

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DW WP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

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GM WP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

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JJ WP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

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JM WP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

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WR WP Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

Season totals below.

Season Totals through April 4 Microsoft Excel - Wins Produced Splits TEST

Props to The NBA Geek and Nerd Numbers for the data. Note that I’ve adjusted Austin Daye’s numbers in the season totals to reflect him playing at SF, while the NBA Geek has him slated at PF.

A Wins Produced perspective on Lawrence Frank

It appears as though Joe Dumars and Tom Gores have found the next coach of the Detroit Pistons – Lawrence Frank.

Most recently, Frank is known for leading the New Jersey Nets to the worst start in NBA history. But before falling to such record-breaking lows, Lawrence Frank found significant success in New Jersey.

In what follows, I will briefly examine Frank’s five full seasons with the New Jersey Nets (leaving out the partial seasons of 03-04 and 09-10) through the lens of Wins Produced in hopes of revealing what he might accomplish in Detroit.

For those new to Wins Produced, feel free to check out the Required Reading page for an introduction. As always, we’re powered by Nerd Numbers.

First, some spreadsheets (also available via Google Docs here), then some commentary.

Frank 04-05

Frank 05-06

Frank 06-07

Frank 07-08

Frank 08-09

First, it’s pretty obvious that like all winning coaches, Frank’s success in New Jersey was driven by quality players. When Jefferson, Vinsanity, and Kidd were young, healthy, and productive, Frank looked like a pretty good coach. But when injuries and age started catching up with that core trio, New Jersey struggled to win basketball games.

The clearest example of quality players driving wins in New Jersey is the mid-season trade of Devin Harris for Jason Kidd. Subtract a productive veteran and replace with a middling upstart, and what do you get? Unfortunately for Lawrence Frank, you eventually get to start looking for a new job.

Frank’s story in New Jersey once again demonstrates that first and foremost, winning coaches are a product of winning players, not the other way around.

The obvious implication for Pistons fans is that we don’t have any true star power like Kidd or Carter (yet), so we shouldn’t expect Frank’s coaching prowess to propel us from cellar dweller status.

I make this second comment hesitantly, because work done by Dr. David Berri suggests that very few coach coaches are able to impact the statistical performance of their players significantly. With that necessary qualifier out of the way, Brook Lopez had his most productive season as a rookie under the tutelage of Lawrence Frank. He was a much better rebounder and much more efficient offensive player while being coached by Frank than he has been since.

I’ll be watching Greg Monroe’s stats closely from start to finish next season for this reason.

Finally, and most importantly, Frank has done a pretty good job of playing his most  productive players. Yes, there are some exceptions – Boone and Diop probably deserved more minutes from Frank, and Jianlian’s minutes scare me a bit given that Charlie Villanueva is on the roster – but overall, Frank let his best players carry the bulk of the weight.

Finding a way to accomplish the same thing in Detroit while juggling personalities (and bloated contracts) would be a significant accomplishment in year one of his tenure.

This quick look at Frank’s tenure in Jersey doesn’t reveal anything new or groundbreaking. Coaches that have and play good players tend to win, and as a result, they tend to look like good coaches. Unfortunately, the Pistons aren’t stacked with talent right now, so we shouldn’t expect an immediate run at the playoffs.

However, Frank seems to have an eye for productive talent, and establishing a consistent rotation made up of its best players is something the fans and the franchise sorely need.

Here’s hoping our new coach can make that happen.

Updated Wins Produced!

A huge thanks to Arturo for crunching the numbers (regardless of how tentative they may be). Thanks to his fine work, we have WP48 numbers for the first three Pistons games of the season – and of course numbers for the rest of the teams in the Association.

From the looks of it, I’ll have to revist how I’ve crunched Win Scores. Ah well, live and learn.

I already pointed out Stuckey and Wallace. Stuckey is playing even better than I realized, as is Big Ben in spite of shooting poorly (he’s among the top 25 in terms of WP48! The Benaissance continues!!!). I also criticized Gordon unfairly; he’s been just as good as he’s looked. Also, in spite of not shooting well at all, TMac is making a positive contribution in limited minutes – which matches what I saw watching him. He’s played great on the ball defense and has been facilitating well for others.

However, Tay, Rip, Charlie, Max, and Daye are off to very poor starts. Their poor shooting and rebounding has been instrumental in all three losses.

Obviously, Gordon can’t keep shooting like he’s shooting, but it’s a great sign nonetheless. And Stuckey’s improvement is just as much tied to increased assists and decreased TO’s as it is to shooting. Here’s hoping that’s stable. And Big Ben is still Big Ben.

Win Score Through Three Games

The Detroit Pistons are off to a rough start. They’ve managed to lose their first three games, which seems to be a continuation of last season. To play devil’s advocate, however, each of the first three games seemed well in hand late in each ball game. So have the Pistons improved, and thus are the three losses a fluke? Or, are we destined to repeat last season all over again and find ourselves out of the Playoffs with a high lottery pick?

Obviously, our sample size is incredibly small, so our judgments at this point are tentative and preliminary. Furthermore, I’ve opted to use Win Score for this post – the simplest metric in the Wins Produced family. (As an aside, I’ve opted for this metric mainly befacuse I haven’t yet determined a quick and accurate way to generate Wins Produced and WP48 until the Automated Wins Produced site is current.)

Still, the numbers still may tell a story.

Win Score 2010-2011 - Google Chrome_2010-10-31_11-55-58

To put these numbers in context, here are average Win Scores by position from 1993-2005.

Win Score by Position - Google Docs - Google Chrome_2010-10-31_13-21-50

A few obvious things jump out.

First, Rodney Stuckey is playing good basketball, perhaps the best overall stretch of his career. Looking at his box score statistics, we can see that his turnovers are down, his assists are up, and his shooting percentage is up – which are all reflected in an increased Win Score overall. Again, the sample is small, but in conjunction with good preseason numbers, I’m hopeful that Stuckey is turning a corner in his career.

Ben Gordon is playing below-average basketball for his position? Unfortunately, that is what the numbers suggest. In spite of shooting a blistering percentage from the field, Gordon isn’t doing much else other than shoot, and as a result, he’s not helping the team win as much as his scoring and shooting percentage suggests.

Tayshaun Prince and Ben Wallace are off to slow starts. Both of these players played solid basketball last season. Ben Wallace in particular was producing at a borderline star level. But both have stumbled out of the gate, posting poor shooting percentages, and for Prince at least, poor rebounding numbers.

Is Rip washed up? According to the Automated Wins Produced numbers, Rip actually produced in the negative range last season, and unfortunately for Pistons fans, he appears to be carrying that trend forward into this season. He is shooting the ball very poorly, and he’s not doing much other than taking shots.

Thus far, Austin Daye’s stellar preseason hasn’t continued in the regular season, and Charlie V has yet to offer anything other than shot attempts. And Greg Monroe – touted by the organization as a big man ready to contribute – has barely gotten off the bench.

In sum, the numbers seem to suggest that thus far, the Pistons have earned all three losses, and poor shooting and poor rebounding seem to be the main culprits – both of which are obvious carry-overs from last season which were not addressed at the roster level this offseason. If they remain problematic – and barring personnel changes, it would appear that they will – our 0-3 start might be a bad omen for the next 79 games.